Tue, Apr 6, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 4, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 211 | 07 | 28 | 426 |
| PHI | 013 | 225 | 04 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:09BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Craig Smith, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 17:31BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 1:33PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Travis Konecny · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 4:03PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Jakub Voracek, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 8:21BOSBrad MarchandSHGWGAssists: Jeremy Lauzon, Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 19:37BOSPatrice BergeronENAssists: Brad Marchand, Chris Wagner · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:15BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:38PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:14BOSTrent Frederic: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:25BOSKevan Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:59BOSKevan Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:59PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:12PHISamuel Morin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith10:54
xG 0.74–0.51 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Coyle – Frederic – Kuhlman2:47
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Frederic5:08
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Ritchie – Pastrnak10:19
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Zboril6:36
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Miller – Grzelcyk11:28
xG 0.60–0.58 (51%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton3:41
xG 0.04–0.06 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Laughton – Patrick7:11
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Konecny8:13
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Lindblom9:12
xG 0.38–0.30 (55%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Raffl – Aube-Kubel – Farabee2:14
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Myers15:35
xG 1.08–0.38 (74%)attempts 25–10goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov4:35
xG 0.27–0.00 (98%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Braun – Provorov13:31
xG 0.34–0.85 (29%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).