Tue, Apr 6, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 113 | 113 | 010 | 236 |
| CAR | 07 | 117 | 412 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:19FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Carter Verhaeghe · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 18:03CARVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 18:30FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Mason Marchment · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 0:45CARDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 8:52CARJordan StaalGWGUnassisted · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 18:20CARJordan StaalENAssists: Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–4
- P3 19:04CARJesper FastENAssists: Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.70 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:10CARAndrei Svechnikov: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 15:11FLAFrank Vatrano: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:24CARSebastian Aho: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:31FLAAleksander Barkov: Interference2 min
- P2 16:52FLAKeith Yandle: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:17FLAFrank Vatrano: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Luostarinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Marchment12:30
xG 0.94–0.39 (71%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Lammikko – Vatrano – Acciari10:46
xG 0.83–0.44 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Huberdeau – Wennberg9:39
xG 0.19–0.23 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Stillman7:33
xG 0.72–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Weegar – Forsling15:34
xG 0.91–0.67 (58%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Yandle – Stralman4:40
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestPaquette – Lorentz – Geekie6:59
xG 0.68–0.19 (79%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Fast – Aho – Svechnikov12:06
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Trocheck – Necas4:42
xG 0.18–0.37 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Foegele8:15
xG 0.32–0.89 (27%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce15:50
xG 0.95–0.26 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Slavin16:18
xG 0.89–1.39 (39%)attempts 15–18goals 0–2
- Fleury – Bean11:28
xG 0.25–1.10 (18%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).