Tue, Apr 6, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 011 | 214 | 238 |
| CBJ | 110 | 112 | 28 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:57CBJZac DalpeAssists: Max Domi, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 2:03CBJJack RoslovicAssists: Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 6:08CBJMax DomiPPGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 13:30CBJNick FolignoENAssists: Alexandre Texier · Wrist, 0.65 xG0–4
- P3 14:37TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Tyler Johnson, Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 19:41TBLLuke SchennAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Patrick Maroon · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:49CBJJoonas Korpisalo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:00TBLAlex Killorn: Interference2 min
- P2 10:26TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:20CBJMax Domi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:28TBLBarclay Goodrow: Holding2 min
- P3 5:49TBLMikhail Sergachev: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:49CBJBoone Jenner: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:17TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:06CBJSeth Jones: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Texier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Cirelli7:44
xG 0.59–0.05 (92%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Point3:45
xG 0.33–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde7:11
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Colton3:42
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestThomas – Sergachev8:46
xG 0.88–0.16 (85%)attempts 14–3goals 1–1
- McDonagh – Schenn11:04
xG 0.38–0.07 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Hedman – Thomas2:40
xG 0.29–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDalpe – Robinson – Foudy4:13
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Laine – Texier9:13
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Grigorenko – Roslovic8:14
xG 0.16–0.61 (21%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Foligno – Jenner – Domi8:25
xG 0.15–0.61 (20%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Del Zotto – Lehtonen11:43
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Jones – Werenski11:49
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Savard – Gavrikov14:27
xG 0.63–0.93 (41%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).