Tue, Apr 6, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 2, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 010 | 28 | 227 |
| CHI | 110 | 211 | 17 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:13CHIKirby DachAssists: Patrick Kane, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 9:39CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 19:05CHIAlex DeBrincatGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 1:29DALAndrew CoglianoSHAssists: Blake Comeau · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 13:46DALRadek FaksaAssists: Esa Lindell, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 19:53CHIPatrick KaneENAssists: Alex DeBrincat, David Kampf · Backhand, 0.72 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:12DALJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:31DALJason Robertson: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:58CHINikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P2 13:44CHICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:15DALJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Cogliano – Gardner6:34
xG 0.47–0.25 (65%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa2:58
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:53
xG 0.45–0.32 (59%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Dowling – Kero – Dellandrea5:09
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Heiskanen3:54
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Sekera – Pysyk9:37
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Oleksiak5:43
xG 0.27–0.11 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHinostroza – Kubalik – Kurashev8:24
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Dach12:55
xG 0.78–0.52 (60%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Janmark – Strome – Suter7:47
xG 0.19–0.24 (45%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Hagel – Kampf9:17
xG 0.12–0.42 (22%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Boqvist9:31
xG 0.93–0.70 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 2–1
- de Haan – Kalynuk10:01
xG 0.24–0.12 (68%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- de Haan – Murphy2:56
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).