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Ice Lab

Wed, Apr 7, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Colorado Avalanche 3, Minnesota Wild 8

Away

Colorado Avalanche

3

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

8

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.

MIN winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL04314014332
MIN392436819

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:00MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Victor Rask, Jared Spurgeon · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 13:15MINLuke JohnsonAssists: Kyle Rau, Carson Soucy · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P1 18:38MINKevin FialaPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.03 xG0–3
  4. P2 0:34COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P2 4:37MINRyan HartmanGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
  6. P2 5:17COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Jacob MacDonald, Kyle Burroughs · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–4
  7. P2 9:42COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–4
  8. P2 13:38MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
  9. P3 4:24MINKevin FialaAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–6
  10. P3 7:18MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Zach Parise, Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–7
  11. P3 7:56MINKevin FialaPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–8
Penalties (18)
  1. P1 0:51COLDevon Toews: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 0:51MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 2:01COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 4:35MINJordan Greenway: Interference2 min
  5. P1 9:39MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 17:51COLAndre Burakovsky: Delaying game bench2 min · PPG
  7. P1 19:03MINCarson Soucy: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  8. P2 0:47MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 8:40MINRyan Suter: Roughing2 min · PPG
  10. P2 12:55COLNathan MacKinnon: Slashing2 min · PPG
  11. P3 4:57COLJoonas Donskoi: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 7:41COLMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  13. P3 8:51COLLiam O'Brien: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 8:51MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 8:51MINMathew Dumba: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 8:51COLLiam O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
  17. P3 14:18MINIan Cole: Tripping2 min
  18. P3 19:38MINRyan Hartman: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
46% to win54% to win
← COL attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Landeskog
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLMIN
32Shots on goal19
2.3Expected goals1.6
59Shot attempts39
38Faceoffs won37
7Power plays5
24Penalty minutes28
10Hits16
11Blocked shots20
3Giveaways2
1Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestKadri – Saad – Burakovsky9:54

    xG 0.79–0.19 (80%)attempts 20–4goals 1–1

  2. Donskoi – Nichushkin – Jost6:21

    xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1

  3. O'Brien – Compher – Bellemare4:54

    xG 0.02–0.00 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  4. Compher – Nichushkin – Jost2:04

    xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Toews – Girard8:40

    xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1

  2. Burroughs – MacDonald10:07

    xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0

  3. Graves – Toews2:03

    xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

Minnesota Wild

Forward lines

  1. bestBonino – Hartman – Fiala5:54

    xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0

  2. Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov2:41

    xG 0.02–0.04 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  3. Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov8:49

    xG 0.08–0.24 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0

  4. Johansson – Greenway – Eriksson Ek8:13

    xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–12goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestSuter – Spurgeon10:55

    xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0

  2. Cole – Soucy10:16

    xG 0.12–0.33 (26%)attempts 5–9goals 2–0

  3. Brodin – Dumba12:18

    xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 1.6 xGCOL 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 81/100 · #173 of 868 this seasonSwing 1.15 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.

MIN winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).