Thu, Apr 8, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 6, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 314 | 013 | 311 | 638 |
| BUF | 113 | 212 | 02 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 2:06NJDPavel ZachaPPAssists: Ty Smith, Jesper Bratt · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 3:47NJDPavel ZachaPPAssists: Ty Smith, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 16:04NJDJack HughesAssists: Janne Kuokkanen, Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 11:56BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Colin Miller · Snap, 0.35 xG3–2
- P2 18:21BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Dahlin · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 8:45NJDJesper BoqvistGWGAssists: Michael McLeod · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–3
- P3 18:17NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: Jack Hughes, Janne Kuokkanen · Snap, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 19:28NJDJanne KuokkanenENAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.68 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:30BUFCody Eakin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 3:03BUFTage Thompson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:27NJDDmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:20NJDPavel Zacha: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:44NJDMiles Wood: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:37BUFSteven Fogarty: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:14BUFRasmus Ristolainen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKuokkanen – Sharangovich – Hughes11:22
xG 1.15–0.02 (98%)attempts 18–3goals 2–0
- Johnsson – McLeod – Boqvist2:19
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Wood – Zacha – Bratt11:30
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Merkley – Boqvist5:25
xG 0.12–0.05 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Kulikov9:37
xG 1.01–0.40 (72%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Murray – Severson12:50
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Smith10:34
xG 0.70–0.47 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Reinhart – Olofsson7:42
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Okposo – Reinhart – Olofsson2:21
xG 0.12–0.08 (62%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Eakin – Rieder – Fogarty8:10
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Asplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt8:34
xG 0.19–0.36 (34%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jokiharju – Dahlin16:48
xG 0.62–0.87 (42%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Bryson11:41
xG 0.32–0.67 (32%)attempts 6–16goals 0–2
- Miller – Montour11:24
xG 0.23–0.67 (26%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).