Thu, Apr 8, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 2, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 17 | 18 | 010 | 02 | 0 | 227 |
| NYI | 29 | 06 | 06 | 02 | 1 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:10NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Ryan Pulock, Anthony Beauvillier · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 7:13NYIJordan EberleAssists: Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 13:53PHINicolas Aube-KubelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 3:22PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYI Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 3. NYI Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 4. PHI Nolan Patrick stopped
- 5. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 6. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 7. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
- 8. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 9. NYI Brock Nelson scored
- 10. PHI Joel Farabee stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:27PHISamuel Morin: Boarding5 min
- P1 7:27PHISamuel Morin: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 15:15PHIRobert Hagg: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:12NYIMatt Martin: Holding2 min
- P3 3:35NYINoah Dobson: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:02PHIKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Couturier – Lindblom10:55
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Hayes – Laughton – Farabee7:37
xG 0.25–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Raffl – Aube-Kubel – Patrick5:17
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Konecny11:40
xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Sanheim10:15
xG 0.83–0.38 (69%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg5:15
xG 0.29–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Sanheim3:37
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Palmieri – Pageau9:16
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Komarov – Eberle – Barzal9:33
xG 0.63–0.66 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier10:05
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 3–8goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:21
xG 0.01–0.40 (3%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Greene – Mayfield2:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock16:12
xG 0.64–0.70 (48%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Greene – Dobson11:27
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).