Thu, Apr 8, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 0, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 08 | 010 | 024 |
| CAR | 19 | 17 | 16 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:31CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 6:35CARVincent TrocheckAssists: Martin Necas, Brady Skjei · Deflected, 0.27 xG0–2
- P3 19:08CARMartin NecasENAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.64 xG0–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:05CARBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:27FLARyan Lomberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:24FLAMatt Kiersted: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:05CARBrady Skjei: Interference2 min
- P2 9:23FLAMarkus Nutivaara: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:58CARNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:56CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:18FLAPatric Hornqvist: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:36CARBrett Pesce: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:36FLAPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:17FLAMason Marchment: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:17CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Marchment8:15
xG 0.88–0.18 (83%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Huberdeau – Barkov4:50
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lammikko – Vatrano – Acciari4:05
xG 0.03–0.09 (27%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Wennberg – Marchment2:14
xG 0.03–0.14 (20%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Gudas7:54
xG 0.66–0.24 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gudas – Forsling2:02
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Forsling – Nutivaara2:39
xG 0.15–0.10 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFast – Aho – Svechnikov10:04
xG 0.85–0.22 (79%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Trocheck – Necas9:40
xG 0.73–0.17 (81%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Paquette – Lorentz – Geekie5:35
xG 0.05–0.04 (54%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Foegele10:28
xG 0.23–0.72 (25%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce11:46
xG 0.71–0.12 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Fleury – Bean8:34
xG 0.59–0.08 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin14:47
xG 0.63–0.88 (42%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).