Thu, Apr 8, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 7, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 310 | 412 | 732 |
| DET | 010 | 110 | 06 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:48DETDarren HelmAssists: Troy Stecher, Adam Erne · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 2:28NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Nick Cousins, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 6:36NSHErik HaulaGWGAssists: Rocco Grimaldi · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 16:10NSHNick CousinsSHAssists: Colton Sissons, Erik Haula · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 7:06NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Ben Harpur, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 10:00NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Tyler Lewington, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 11:06NSHViktor ArvidssonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.32 xG6–1
- P3 15:55NSHYakov TreninAssists: Colton Sissons, Ben Harpur · Backhand, 0.08 xG7–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:24DETMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P1 1:24NSHYakov Trenin: Embellishment2 min
- P1 5:15NSHTyler Lewington: Holding2 min
- P2 8:50NSHNick Cousins: Bench2 min
- P2 8:50DETAdam Erne: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:50NSHMathieu Olivier: Instigator2 min
- P2 8:50DETAdam Erne: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:50NSHMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:50NSHMathieu Olivier: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:29DETDanny DeKeyser: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:06DETDanny DeKeyser: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Cousins – Arvidsson2:15
xG 0.51–0.05 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Haula – Cousins – Kunin3:16
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Haula – Cousins – Sissons2:02
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Haula – Cousins – Grimaldi4:14
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Lewington2:20
xG 0.57–0.14 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Lewington – Harpur3:09
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Benning3:48
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Mantha – Rasmussen9:57
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Helm – Glendening – Erne8:48
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Gagner – Namestnikov – Smith7:35
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
- Larkin – Svechnikov – Zadina8:32
xG 0.47–0.64 (42%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Hronek2:04
xG 0.16–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Stecher17:06
xG 0.75–0.82 (48%)attempts 16–16goals 1–2
- DeKeyser – Hronek13:01
xG 0.45–0.62 (42%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).