Thu, Apr 8, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 5, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 112 | 314 | 18 | 534 |
| CHI | 116 | 08 | 015 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:19DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 14:05CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Philipp Kurashev · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 1:13DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Roope Hintz, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 14:02DALMiro HeiskanenPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 15:47DALBlake ComeauAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–1
- P3 0:50DALBlake ComeauAssists: Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.22 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:10CHIRyan Carpenter: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:29DALTy Dellandrea: Interference2 min
- P2 0:17CHIDylan Strome: Interference2 min
- P2 1:57DALJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min
- P2 13:14CHIRyan Carpenter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 16:43DALTy Dellandrea: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suter won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Cogliano – Faksa10:47
xG 0.89–0.25 (78%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Kero – Gardner – L'Esperance3:23
xG 0.02–0.00 (80%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Gurianov – Dellandrea6:05
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson7:20
xG 0.19–0.38 (33%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Oleksiak2:06
xG 0.32–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell13:01
xG 0.73–0.66 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen17:10
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHinostroza – Kubalik – Kurashev9:41
xG 0.75–0.37 (67%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Strome – DeBrincat – Dach3:44
xG 0.52–0.25 (68%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Hagel – Kampf6:08
xG 0.29–0.07 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Hagel – Suter2:37
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Zadorov11:24
xG 0.78–0.50 (61%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Murphy – Kalynuk4:28
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- de Haan – Zadorov5:46
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).