Thu, Apr 8, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Winnipeg Jets 4, Montréal Canadiens 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 39 | 06 | 112 | 427 |
| MTL | 118 | 111 | 09 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Mason Appleton · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 1:40MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Tomas Tatar, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 8:03WPGTrevor LewisAssists: Neal Pionk, Derek Forbort · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 13:07WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 15:14MTLPaul ByronAssists: Jeff Petry, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 19:22WPGAndrew CoppENAssists: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.63 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P2 0:43WPGAdam Lowry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:47WPGAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:36MTLJosh Anderson: Interference2 min
- P2 11:36WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:36MTLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:26MTLNick Suzuki: Interference2 min
- P3 15:48MTLNick Suzuki: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Ehlers – Dubois3:18
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Copp – Connor4:29
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Appleton10:39
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Harkins7:02
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Morrissey17:27
xG 0.78–0.45 (64%)attempts 17–22goals 1–0
- Forbort – Pionk15:43
xG 0.47–0.25 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Stanley12:03
xG 0.57–0.90 (39%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Toffoli – Suzuki7:30
xG 0.69–0.18 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Tatar – Danault – Kotkaniemi8:09
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Perry – Anderson – Suzuki7:28
xG 0.01–0.02 (31%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Anderson – Drouin3:22
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Romanov3:06
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kulak – Romanov2:12
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Petry – Kulak15:05
xG 0.52–0.55 (49%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).