Fri, Apr 9, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 1, St. Louis Blues 9
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 112 | 010 | 03 | 125 |
| STL | 418 | 311 | 29 | 938 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32STLZachary SanfordAssists: Robert Thomas, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:59STLJaden SchwartzGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 7:33MINZach PariseAssists: Carson Soucy · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P1 15:23STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Brayden Schenn, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P1 16:53STLSammy BlaisAssists: Justin Faulk, David Perron · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 1:09STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Sammy Blais, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.06 xG1–5
- P2 4:39STLRyan O'ReillySHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–6
- P2 8:19STLJustin FaulkAssists: Robert Thomas, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–7
- P3 10:17STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Jake Walman, Sammy Blais · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–8
- P3 17:39STLIvan BarbashevPPAssists: Torey Krug, Ryan O'Reilly · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–9
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:55STLJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:12MINJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:37STLBrayden Schenn: Holding2 min
- P3 16:06MINCarson Soucy: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Rau – Johnson6:13
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Parise – Hartman – Fiala2:08
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bonino – Hartman – Fiala5:25
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 8–3goals 0–2
- Rau – Rask – Johnson4:10
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Soucy15:15
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba18:40
xG 0.30–0.74 (29%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
- Suter – Spurgeon13:59
xG 0.28–0.84 (25%)attempts 11–16goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Blais10:42
xG 0.83–0.07 (92%)attempts 15–5goals 3–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:38
xG 0.60–0.25 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Bozak – Sanford – Thomas8:52
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 5–6goals 2–0
- Clifford – Barbashev – Kyrou10:32
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Walman16:15
xG 0.89–0.09 (91%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Scandella – Dunn16:39
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug14:49
xG 0.79–0.61 (57%)attempts 10–18goals 4–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).