Sat, Apr 10, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 5, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 29 | 19 | 18 | 02 | 2 | 528 |
| CAR | 216 | 16 | 111 | 01 | 1 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38CARMartin NecasAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 6:15DETDylan LarkinAssists: Filip Zadina, Troy Stecher · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 10:10DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Alex Biega · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–1
- P1 14:44CARJordan StaalAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 9:52CARDougie HamiltonUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 16:03DETValtteri FilppulaUnassisted · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 13:40DETAdam ErneUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 16:00CARSebastian AhoAssists: Martin Necas, Nino Niederreiter · Snap, 0.08 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. CAR Dougie Hamilton stopped
- 2. DET Dylan Larkin scored
- 3. CAR Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 4. DET Evgeny Svechnikov stopped
- 5. CAR Andrei Svechnikov scored
- 6. DET Filip Zadina stopped
- 7. CAR Martin Necas stopped
- 8. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 9. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
- 10. DET Filip Hronek stopped
- 11. CAR Jaccob Slavin stopped
- 12. DET Anthony Mantha stopped
- 13. CAR Nino Niederreiter stopped
- 14. DET Adam Erne scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:09DETMichael Rasmussen: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:30CARBrady Skjei: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:54CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:34DETChristian Djoos: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Mantha – Rasmussen5:45
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 2–1
- Nielsen – Namestnikov – Svechnikov8:21
xG 0.65–0.42 (61%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Larkin – Rasmussen – Zadina2:32
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Erne – Larkin – Zadina2:19
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – DeKeyser5:28
xG 0.72–0.60 (55%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- DeKeyser – Stecher7:12
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Cholowski – Hronek8:14
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFast – Aho – Svechnikov9:38
xG 0.75–0.37 (67%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Paquette – Lorentz – Geekie5:50
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Fast – Trocheck – Svechnikov3:38
xG 0.16–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Martinook – Foegele – Lorentz2:17
xG 0.13–0.09 (57%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin17:41
xG 1.24–0.29 (81%)attempts 18–9goals 3–1
- Gardiner – Bean10:30
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
- Skjei – Pesce16:28
xG 0.45–0.70 (39%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).