Sat, Apr 10, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Winnipeg Jets 5, Montréal Canadiens 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 05 | 313 | 27 | 525 |
| MTL | 06 | 08 | 05 | 019 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:13WPGPaul StastnyGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 16:57WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 19:31WPGDerek ForbortAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 7:17WPGAndrew CoppPPAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–0
- P3 10:42WPGMathieu PerreaultUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:51MTLJoel Edmundson: Hooking2 min
- P1 1:45WPGPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:46MTLShea Weber: Holding2 min
- P2 3:19WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:40WPGPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:44MTLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:40WPGPaul Stastny: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:40MTLShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:57MTLJonathan Drouin: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 6:17MTLCorey Perry: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:09MTLJoel Edmundson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 7:55MTLJake Evans: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:55WPGJosh Morrissey: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Lewis – Harkins8:50
xG 0.32–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Copp – Connor10:58
xG 0.34–0.07 (84%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Appleton9:19
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Stastny – Ehlers – Dubois9:17
xG 0.18–0.39 (31%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Pionk11:51
xG 0.55–0.18 (75%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Stanley11:17
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Forbort – DeMelo2:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Danault – Kotkaniemi7:09
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Evans3:33
xG 0.10–0.08 (54%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Anderson – Suzuki3:56
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Toffoli – Suzuki4:26
xG 0.00–0.07 (4%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRomanov – Leskinen12:22
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Leskinen2:22
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Petry – Kulak12:33
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).