Sat, Apr 10, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Florida Panthers 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 18 | 06 | 121 |
| DAL | 39 | 08 | 13 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 1:49DALJoel L'EsperanceGWGAssists: Justin Dowling · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 9:03DALJamie BennPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 19:58FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–3
- P3 1:21DALJason RobertsonUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:41FLARadko Gudas: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:48DALBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:35FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:39DALTanner Kero: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:43FLARyan Lomberg: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:42DALMark Pysyk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:57DALBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Marchment12:23
xG 0.69–0.29 (70%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Lammikko – Lomberg – Luostarinen2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Lammikko – Vatrano – Lomberg3:15
xG 0.12–0.17 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Acciari – Lomberg4:03
xG 0.01–0.09 (9%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kiersted2:32
xG 0.32–0.06 (83%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Stralman – Connauton3:14
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Yandle – Gudas4:45
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDowling – Gardner – L'Esperance5:19
xG 0.27–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:29
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Benn – Gurianov – Kero9:24
xG 0.11–0.16 (42%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa11:15
xG 0.29–0.68 (30%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Pysyk11:42
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell11:53
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Klingberg – Oleksiak2:19
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).