Sun, Apr 11, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 212 | 311 | 531 |
| PHI | 215 | 012 | 116 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:36PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 14:14PHIJoel FarabeePPAssists: Nolan Patrick, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–2
- P2 3:56BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 4:42BUFArttu RuotsalainenAssists: Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 3:47PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Joel Farabee, Philippe Myers · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 16:57BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Victor Olofsson, Jacob Bryson · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
- P3 17:22BUFRasmus AsplundGWGAssists: Jacob Bryson · Backhand, 0.31 xG4–3
- P3 19:36BUFCasey MittelstadtENAssists: Kyle Okposo, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.60 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:42PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:15BUFArttu Ruotsalainen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 16:58PHIPhilippe Myers: Holding2 min
- P3 5:08PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:40PHIRobert Hagg: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:40BUFColin Miller: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestAsplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt11:25
xG 0.87–0.46 (65%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Okposo – Cozens – Ruotsalainen10:19
xG 0.40–0.64 (39%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Skinner – Reinhart – Olofsson12:30
xG 0.64–0.99 (39%)attempts 9–17goals 2–0
- Eakin – Sheahan – Rieder9:02
xG 0.21–0.72 (22%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – Miller9:28
xG 0.68–0.57 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Ristolainen – Bryson15:59
xG 0.82–1.06 (44%)attempts 12–22goals 2–1
- Jokiharju – Dahlin18:31
xG 0.43–0.72 (37%)attempts 21–16goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAube-Kubel – Lindblom – Laczynski6:00
xG 0.51–0.15 (78%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Patrick10:04
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee10:48
xG 0.86–0.61 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
- Giroux – Voracek – Konecny11:56
xG 0.44–0.84 (34%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Myers13:12
xG 1.03–0.81 (56%)attempts 15–18goals 2–1
- Gostisbehere – Provorov2:37
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Myers2:04
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).