Sat, Apr 10, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 18 | 012 | 01 | 230 |
| STL | 06 | 17 | 112 | 15 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:25MINNico SturmAssists: Joseph Cramarossa · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 3:07STLMike HoffmanPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Tyler Bozak · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 18:12MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 19:18STLMike HoffmanAssists: Vince Dunn, David Perron · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 4:58STLRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Vince Dunn · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:34STLVince Dunn: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:10MINJoel Eriksson Ek: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:26MINJared Spurgeon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:02STLVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:02MINMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:47STLMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:02MINJoel Eriksson Ek: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sturm won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Johansson – Eriksson Ek8:32
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Cramarossa – Rau – Sturm8:52
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov10:45
xG 0.10–0.24 (29%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Bonino – Hartman – Greenway8:45
xG 0.00–0.57 (0%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:01
xG 0.77–0.28 (73%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Cole – Soucy9:42
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba14:43
xG 0.04–0.31 (11%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestClifford – Barbashev – Kyrou8:33
xG 0.60–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Blais10:02
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Bozak – Sanford7:55
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:03
xG 0.30–0.56 (35%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Walman11:37
xG 0.54–0.05 (91%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Faulk – Krug16:21
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dunn13:44
xG 0.33–0.64 (34%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).