Sun, Apr 11, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 4, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 115 | 112 | 210 | 437 |
| ANA | 07 | 010 | 18 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:46COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 6:35COLGabriel LandeskogPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.31 xG2–0
- P3 12:37ANAJamie DrysdaleAssists: Troy Terry, Sam Carrick · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 14:13COLRyan GravesAssists: Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 16:54COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Cale Makar, Gabriel Landeskog · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 8:22ANANicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:22COLLiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:26COLCale Makar: Interference2 min
- P2 4:45ANANicolas Deslauriers: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:43ANAMax Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:05ANATroy Terry: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:35COLNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:35ANAJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:57COLJ.T. Compher: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:48ANAMax Jones: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:48COLTyson Jost: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:16ANASam Carrick: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:16ANASam Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:16ANASam Carrick: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:16COLLiam O'Brien: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:16COLLiam O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:49
xG 0.93–0.24 (80%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Compher – Bellemare5:28
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Saad – Jost8:09
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin9:06
xG 0.64–0.66 (49%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Middleton6:39
xG 0.57–0.05 (92%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard12:50
xG 0.99–0.50 (66%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Girard – Makar2:53
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Carrick – Terry – Jones6:53
xG 0.69–0.65 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Comtois8:41
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Volkov6:27
xG 0.02–0.46 (4%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Heinen12:49
xG 0.20–0.74 (21%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Hakanpää11:00
xG 0.49–0.41 (55%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Hakanpää – Hutton2:17
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Fowler2:49
xG 0.06–0.24 (19%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).