Mon, Apr 12, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 010 | 310 | 330 |
| CAR | 013 | 011 | 114 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 0:24DETAdam ErneAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P3 2:34DETFilip ZadinaPPGWGAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P3 13:54CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Warren Foegele, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 19:05DETSam GagnerENAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Danny DeKeyser · Slap, 0.67 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P2 4:31DETValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:51CARMorgan Geekie: Throwing equipment2 min
- P2 11:39DETMichael Rasmussen: Holding2 min
- P2 14:42CARJordan Staal: Holding2 min
- P3 0:24CARNino Niederreiter: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 1:38CARBrady Skjei: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 5:03DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:44CARSebastian Aho: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:48DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Erne – Rasmussen2:17
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Gagner – Smith2:25
xG 0.22–0.01 (97%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Larkin – Svechnikov – Zadina6:55
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne5:39
xG 0.42–0.46 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stecher10:10
xG 0.68–0.15 (82%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- DeKeyser – Lindstrom6:13
xG 0.39–0.08 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Biega – DeKeyser4:22
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestPaquette – Lorentz – Geekie6:43
xG 0.91–0.54 (63%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Martinook – Aho – Svechnikov4:47
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Trocheck – Necas6:39
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Foegele3:02
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin15:12
xG 1.80–1.03 (64%)attempts 25–11goals 0–1
- Skjei – Slavin2:01
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce11:47
xG 0.68–0.52 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).