Mon, Apr 12, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 09 | 213 | 12 | 434 |
| CBJ | 113 | 17 | 112 | 01 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:02CBJStefan MatteauAssists: Seth Jones, Kole Sherwood · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 16:25CHIDuncan KeithPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 6:11CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Max Domi, Vladislav Gavrikov · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 6:15CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 8:21CHIBrett ConnollyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 11:32CBJPatrik LaineUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- OT 1:25CHIBrandon HagelGWGAssists: Kirby Dach, Wyatt Kalynuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:11CBJScott Harrington: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:09CBJMax Domi: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:09CBJMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:09CBJMax Domi: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Stenlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Carpenter – Kampf8:08
xG 0.27–0.10 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kane – Hagel – Suter5:26
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Strome – Hagel – Suter4:13
xG 0.12–0.04 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Hinostroza – DeBrincat – Dach2:02
xG 0.07–0.01 (84%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Murphy6:28
xG 0.39–0.09 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- de Haan – Murphy2:55
xG 0.25–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Keith – Stillman2:39
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Domi – Laine9:08
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Matteau – Stenlund – Sherwood8:11
xG 0.28–0.13 (69%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Bjorkstrand – Roslovic2:01
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Dalpe – Texier – Robinson8:41
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Jones19:09
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Harrington2:11
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 1–8goals 1–0
- Kukan – Lehtonen13:40
xG 0.44–0.62 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).