Tue, Apr 13, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Nashville Predators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 17 | 18 | 223 |
| NSH | 37 | 15 | 310 | 722 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:38NSHColton SissonsAssists: Rem Pitlick, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:31NSHRoman JosiAssists: Rocco Grimaldi · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 13:50NSHViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Ben Harpur · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 0:41TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Mikhail Sergachev · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 8:09NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 9:59NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 11:28TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–5
- P3 14:34NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Yakov Trenin · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–6
- P3 18:34NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Rem Pitlick, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:07TBLCurtis McElhinney: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:37NSHRyan Ellis: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:13TBLPatrick Maroon: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:28TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:28NSHErik Haula: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:26TBLOndrej Palat: Interference2 min
- P3 15:04NSHJeremy Davies: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde10:59
xG 0.65–0.69 (49%)attempts 13–8goals 1–3
- Palat – Point – Cirelli12:01
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
- Killorn – Johnson – Joseph9:21
xG 0.07–0.29 (19%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – Stephens – Colton6:34
xG 0.09–0.45 (16%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Cernak – Sergachev4:16
xG 0.02–0.05 (31%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Cernak11:57
xG 0.35–0.45 (44%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Sergachev7:33
xG 0.12–0.30 (28%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Grimaldi – Arvidsson10:22
xG 0.87–0.10 (89%)attempts 11–9goals 4–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot8:54
xG 0.61–0.35 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Granlund – Kunin11:33
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Haula – Cousins – Pitlick8:29
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Benning13:46
xG 0.91–0.11 (89%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Harpur – Davies12:07
xG 0.62–0.21 (75%)attempts 9–11goals 3–0
- Ellis – Ekholm17:19
xG 0.26–0.54 (32%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).