Sat, May 8, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 3, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 05 | 312 | 08 | 325 |
| EDM | 112 | 319 | 03 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:45EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ethan Bear, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 6:53EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Slap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 9:12VANJ.T. MillerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 11:40VANTravis BoydAssists: Jimmy Vesey · Slap, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 12:27EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: James Neal, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 14:21VANTyler GraovacAssists: Jayce Hawryluk, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 19:20EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Slap, 0.26 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:02EDMAlex Chiasson: Holding2 min
- P2 7:17EDMAlex Chiasson: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:46VANBo Horvat: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:06VANJ.T. Miller: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:22EDMCaleb Jones: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:31VANTyler Myers: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:14VANTravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:51EDMAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P3 7:27EDMConnor McDavid: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGraovac – Hawryluk – Michaelis8:11
xG 1.10–0.70 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander2:14
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Boyd – Vesey – Lind5:23
xG 0.02–0.04 (34%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Hoglander8:16
xG 0.35–0.47 (43%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Rathbone9:20
xG 1.38–0.49 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Edler – Schmidt9:02
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Edler – Hamonic3:50
xG 0.05–0.05 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMcDavid – Puljujarvi – Kahun11:55
xG 1.81–0.08 (96%)attempts 25–6goals 1–0
- Archibald – Shore – Khaira7:16
xG 0.70–0.44 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi2:15
xG 0.10–0.17 (36%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Neal – Chiasson – McLeod6:54
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse15:36
xG 2.13–0.29 (88%)attempts 27–9goals 1–0
- Bear – Jones12:27
xG 0.53–0.60 (47%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Larsson – Lagesson11:44
xG 0.15–0.54 (21%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).