Mon, Apr 12, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 012 | 221 | 28 | 441 |
| LAK | 112 | 110 | 06 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:41LAKAustin WagnerAssists: Brendan Lemieux, Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 8:57LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown, Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 14:20VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Tomas Jurco, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 19:33VGKMark StoneSHAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 4:35VGKAlex TuchGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 8:22VGKMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.04 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:25LAKAnze Kopitar: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:57VGKTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:05VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:34VGKWilliam Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:01LAKChristian Wolanin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:03VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Nosek – Tuch10:37
xG 1.08–0.44 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:11
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Jurco – Tuch – Roy3:34
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson12:29
xG 0.42–0.95 (31%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud10:12
xG 0.89–0.59 (60%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Martinez – Theodore11:25
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Martinez – Coghlan3:34
xG 0.03–0.19 (16%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo13:11
xG 0.94–0.34 (73%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Kempe – Moore – Anderson-Dolan9:14
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Lemieux – Wagner – Vilardi9:46
xG 0.04–0.32 (11%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Grundstrom – Lizotte10:31
xG 0.48–1.01 (32%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson17:21
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Maatta – Walker2:30
xG 0.29–0.20 (58%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Wolanin – Walker11:39
xG 0.92–0.91 (50%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).