Thu, Apr 15, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 111 | 05 | 123 |
| BOS | 223 | 012 | 210 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:49BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 17:55BOSCraig SmithPPGWGAssists: David Krejci, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 2:56NYITravis ZajacAssists: Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 1:52BOSTaylor HallAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 18:24BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:07NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:59NYIJosh Bailey: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:45BOSCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:49NYIBrock Nelson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 9:54BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:25NYICal Clutterbuck: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:41BOSJakub Zboril: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Eberle – Barzal8:41
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 10–2goals 1–1
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier4:55
xG 0.12–0.32 (27%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Pageau – Wahlstrom6:11
xG 0.20–0.41 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Beauvillier2:17
xG 0.03–0.35 (8%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Mayfield10:23
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Pelech – Dobson2:25
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Greene – Dobson7:00
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Ritchie – DeBrusk9:11
xG 1.04–0.08 (93%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:28
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Krejci – Smith – Hall8:52
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Lazar12:01
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Clifton14:03
xG 1.28–0.20 (86%)attempts 25–6goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Zboril10:53
xG 0.73–0.27 (73%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Lauzon – McAvoy13:02
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).