Sat, Mar 6, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 16 | 28 | 08 | 322 |
| PIT | 27 | 111 | 19 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.44 xG1–0
- P1 7:54PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 18:01PITBryan RustPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 1:20PHIKevin HayesPPAssists: Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 12:04PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Scott Laughton, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 18:10PITZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 10:41PITJared McCannGWGAssists: Brandon Tanev, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:56PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
- P1 6:33PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:38PITZachary Aston-Reese: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:38PHIRobert Hagg: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 13:34PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min
- P1 17:49PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:24PITMarcus Pettersson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:17PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:47PITMarcus Pettersson: Interference2 min
- P2 11:28PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:28PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Laughton – Konecny9:46
xG 0.56–0.27 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee10:39
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Aube-Kubel – Lindblom7:04
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Voracek – Raffl – Patrick4:03
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Hagg8:45
xG 0.95–0.01 (99%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Braun – Sanheim2:15
xG 0.06–0.09 (42%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Sanheim3:01
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kapanen – McCann10:56
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel10:43
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese9:20
xG 0.08–0.22 (28%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Lafferty – Rodrigues3:29
xG 0.03–0.46 (7%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ceci13:34
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Marino8:30
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin14:20
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).