Tue, Apr 13, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Florida Panthers 3, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 15 | 012 | 14 | 331 |
| DAL | 16 | 07 | 112 | 01 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:50FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Markus Nutivaara, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 12:42DALJason RobertsonAssists: Jamie Benn, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 2:45FLARadko GudasAssists: Keith Yandle, Anthony Duclair · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 8:26DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Robertson, Jamie Benn · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 3:09FLAFrank VatranoPPGWGAssists: Gustav Forsling, MacKenzie Weegar · Slap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:17DALAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:50DALJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:24FLAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:05FLAMason Marchment: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:05DALJamie Oleksiak: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:12FLAAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:53FLAPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:56DALJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:15DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestLammikko – Acciari – Lomberg2:38
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Wennberg – Vatrano11:07
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Barkov13:26
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Lammikko – Marchment – Tippett7:05
xG 0.09–0.31 (23%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Forsling17:39
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Yandle – Gudas11:06
xG 0.43–0.63 (41%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Stralman – Nutivaara14:08
xG 0.15–0.87 (15%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Gurianov – Kero7:54
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Robertson12:52
xG 0.54–0.51 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa9:54
xG 0.19–0.24 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen13:36
xG 0.55–0.11 (84%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Hanley8:11
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell14:53
xG 0.31–0.94 (25%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).