Wed, Apr 14, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 112 | 113 | 29 | 434 |
| MTL | 08 | 110 | 09 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 0:29CGYMark GiordanoGWGAssists: Chris Tanev, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 10:55MTLBrett KulakAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Josh Anderson · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 12:49CGYJosh LeivoUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 18:50CGYSean MonahanENAssists: Chris Tanev, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.56 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:55CGYRasmus Andersson: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:00CGYRasmus Andersson: Interference2 min
- P3 6:50MTLPaul Byron: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLeivo – Ritchie – Ryan8:30
xG 0.80–0.08 (91%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk13:57
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Monahan – Mangiapane – Dube11:26
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
- Lucic – Backlund – Nordstrom10:12
xG 0.23–0.42 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson15:07
xG 0.91–0.60 (60%)attempts 17–19goals 2–1
- Stone – Välimäki9:45
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Andersson – Välimäki3:04
xG 0.20–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Armia – Suzuki5:15
xG 0.21–0.03 (88%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Tatar – Armia – Danault4:48
xG 0.16–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Kotkaniemi6:28
xG 0.29–0.21 (59%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Perry – Lehkonen6:24
xG 0.20–0.22 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Kulak14:47
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 23–8goals 1–1
- Ouellet – Romanov15:03
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
- Petry – Edmundson15:20
xG 0.20–1.17 (15%)attempts 14–26goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).