Sat, May 15, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 010 | 114 | 317 | 441 |
| EDM | 110 | 017 | 05 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:45EDMAdam LarssonAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 1:27VANBo HorvatSHAssists: Tanner Pearson · Snap, 0.29 xG1–1
- P3 9:13VANMatthew HighmoreGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 9:29VANTravis BoydAssists: Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 13:27VANMatthew HighmoreAssists: Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:24EDMDmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:32EDMJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:12VANJ.T. Miller: Holding2 min
- P2 13:46VANZack MacEwen: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:35VANTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Khaira won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Highmore – Boeser10:20
xG 0.68–0.20 (77%)attempts 18–3goals 2–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander8:00
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Boyd – Vesey – MacEwen10:16
xG 0.29–0.09 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Graovac – Hawryluk – Michaelis9:42
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hughes15:33
xG 0.76–0.23 (77%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- Myers – Rathbone12:50
xG 0.74–0.68 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Edler – Hamonic2:52
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi9:46
xG 0.60–0.22 (74%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Archibald – Nugent-Hopkins – Kahun3:36
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins – Kahun3:02
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi – Kahun5:58
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear3:49
xG 0.26–0.10 (71%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Barrie – Koekkoek2:31
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Koekkoek – Bear5:46
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).