Thu, Apr 15, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 113 | 09 | 115 | 01 | 238 |
| TBL | 04 | 18 | 15 | 12 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:13FLAPatric HornqvistAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Markus Nutivaara · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 13:28TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Andrei Vasilevskiy · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 7:13FLAAnthony DuclairAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Markus Nutivaara · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 9:57TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Blake Coleman · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 0:54TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 6:33TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:05FLARadko Gudas: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:15TBLBarclay Goodrow: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:42FLAAnthony Duclair: Holding2 min
- P3 2:13TBLAlex Killorn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGusev – Barkov – Marchment12:31
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Lammikko – Acciari – Tippett9:02
xG 0.28–0.16 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Wennberg – Vatrano11:56
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Wallmark11:31
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Nutivaara15:47
xG 0.68–0.31 (68%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Yandle – Gudas12:10
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Weegar – Forsling19:58
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Johnson – Joseph8:45
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Palat – Point – Barré-Boulet13:25
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Cirelli – Colton10:19
xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde10:03
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Sergachev2:53
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Hedman – Savard4:13
xG 0.08–0.04 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hedman2:23
xG 0.07–0.06 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).