Thu, Apr 15, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 05 | 013 | 18 | 01 | 2 | 227 |
| PIT | 03 | 116 | 08 | 05 | 1 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:04PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 1:24PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Philippe Myers · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PIT Jake Guentzel scored
- 2. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 4. PHI Sean Couturier scored
- 5. PIT Kris Letang stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:25PHIJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:28PITTristan Jarry: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:43PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:09PITJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:08PHITravis Konecny: Holding2 min
- OT 3:03PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLindblom – Allison – Patrick6:09
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Konecny14:19
xG 0.63–0.49 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Laughton – Laczynski – Farabee8:31
xG 0.21–0.36 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Hayes13:39
xG 0.28–0.61 (32%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Hagg11:13
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Sanheim – Myers15:30
xG 0.51–0.58 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Braun – Provorov15:33
xG 0.48–0.90 (35%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Zucker – McCann12:05
xG 0.85–0.58 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel16:25
xG 0.73–0.49 (60%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Blueger – Rodrigues – Aston-Reese10:17
xG 0.27–0.39 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Jankowski – Lafferty5:48
xG 0.04–0.49 (7%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin17:03
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ceci12:11
xG 0.64–0.71 (47%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Marino10:42
xG 0.37–0.56 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).