Thu, Apr 15, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 17 | 05 | 06 | 118 |
| DAL | 05 | 219 | 27 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:16CBJJack RoslovicAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Mikhail Grigorenko · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 16:42DALDenis GurianovAssists: Jason Dickinson, Joel Hanley · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 18:01DALMiro HeiskanenGWGAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Denis Gurianov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 8:16DALDenis GurianovAssists: Esa Lindell, John Klingberg · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 15:08DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 11:57DALMiro Heiskanen: Holding2 min
- P1 16:45CBJAndrew Peeke: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Dunne
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMatteau – Sherwood – Dunne6:15
xG 0.68–0.11 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Grigorenko – Roslovic5:10
xG 0.24–0.03 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Dalpe – Texier – Robinson9:00
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Bjorkstrand – Roslovic2:13
xG 0.01–0.07 (17%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Jones19:37
xG 1.35–0.98 (58%)attempts 20–21goals 1–2
- Kukan – Peeke16:43
xG 0.36–0.69 (34%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Harrington – Gavrikov16:19
xG 0.28–0.66 (29%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dickinson – Gurianov11:28
xG 0.98–0.02 (98%)attempts 17–3goals 2–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson13:34
xG 0.52–0.55 (49%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa12:24
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Dowling – Kero – Gardner8:00
xG 0.26–0.79 (25%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Hanley12:24
xG 0.93–0.20 (82%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen19:22
xG 0.86–0.42 (67%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Vatanen – Lindell2:28
xG 0.09–0.00 (98%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).