Fri, Apr 16, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 0, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 06 | 09 | 025 |
| BOS | 18 | 112 | 18 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:57BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Mike Reilly, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 0:47BOSTaylor HallAssists: David Krejci, Steven Kampfer · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 18:48BOSCurtis LazarENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.66 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:59NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:28BOSSean Kuraly: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:09NYIJordan Eberle: Elbowing2 min
- P2 13:24BOSNick Ritchie: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:45NYIMatt Martin: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:07BOSSean Kuraly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:10BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:55BOSSean Kuraly: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Lazar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Dal Colle8:30
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Komarov – Martin – Cizikas7:29
xG 0.03–0.01 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Zajac – Eberle – Barzal9:27
xG 0.08–0.37 (18%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Pageau – Beauvillier – Wahlstrom7:24
xG 0.07–0.51 (12%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Dobson3:23
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:06
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Greene – Pulock4:11
xG 0.03–0.04 (42%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Smith – Hall9:39
xG 0.89–0.11 (89%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Lazar7:19
xG 0.47–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:32
xG 0.58–0.19 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Coyle – Ritchie – DeBrusk8:53
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Lauzon6:32
xG 0.68–0.07 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Reilly – Clifton14:16
xG 0.84–0.24 (78%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Zboril – McAvoy8:44
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).