Fri, Apr 16, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 1, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 013 | 08 | 18 | 129 |
| MTL | 06 | 18 | 16 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:32MTLTyler ToffoliAssists: Nick Suzuki, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 6:30CGYElias LindholmAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 15:45MTLTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Joel Armia, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:41MTLJoel Edmundson: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:45CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:27CGYJuuso Välimäki: Holding2 min
- P2 12:49MTLNick Suzuki: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:19MTLTyler Toffoli: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:19CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk10:25
xG 0.66–0.23 (75%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Leivo – Ritchie – Ryan7:22
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Monahan – Mangiapane – Dube6:45
xG 0.14–0.28 (34%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Lucic – Backlund – Nordstrom12:42
xG 0.23–0.63 (27%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Tanev16:57
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Andersson14:42
xG 0.61–0.46 (57%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Stone – Välimäki11:09
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Armia – Suzuki8:45
xG 0.93–0.18 (84%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Staal – Perry – Lehkonen6:35
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Byron – Tatar – Danault8:04
xG 0.05–0.29 (15%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Anderson – Drouin – Kotkaniemi12:43
xG 0.15–0.74 (17%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Romanov13:54
xG 0.77–0.35 (69%)attempts 17–19goals 2–0
- Chiarot – Edmundson2:04
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Edmundson15:58
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).