Fri, Apr 16, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
San Jose Sharks 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 04 | 110 | 222 |
| MIN | 14 | 27 | 07 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:32SJSTomas HertlAssists: Radim Simek, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:30MINNick BoninoUnassisted · Slap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 2:15MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Victor Rask · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 3:20MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Mathew Dumba, Nick Bonino · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 13:43SJSEvander KaneSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:32MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:59SJSTomas Hertl: Holding2 min
- P3 9:54SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:00SJSLogan Couture: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Viel – Handemark4:13
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Marleau – Hertl – Balcers12:18
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Sorensen – Meier – Gambrell10:27
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Couture – Kane – Labanc12:55
xG 0.34–0.48 (41%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Karlsson3:16
xG 0.45–0.18 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Knyzhov14:55
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Simek10:45
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 10–4goals 1–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek12:36
xG 0.39–0.01 (97%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Parise – Bonino – Sturm10:01
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov10:10
xG 0.55–0.30 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Fiala9:50
xG 0.18–0.41 (30%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba17:57
xG 0.82–0.47 (63%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Suter – Spurgeon14:38
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Cole – Soucy13:13
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).