Wed, May 12, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 0, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 03 | 08 | 07 | 018 |
| COL | 314 | 313 | 010 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:43COLJoonas DonskoiPPGWGAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
- P1 16:02COLPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Jayson Megna, Kiefer Sherwood · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–2
- P1 19:15COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 4:16COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Devon Toews, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–4
- P2 10:03COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Devon Toews, Mikko Rantanen · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–5
- P2 11:47COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:42LAKAdrian Kempe: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:28LAKMikey Anderson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:43COLDevon Toews: Interference2 min
- P2 2:10LAKSean Walker: Interference2 min
- P3 3:26COLConor Timmins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:54LAKLias Andersson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Jost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Kopitar – Athanasiou – Grundstrom4:16
xG 0.11–0.09 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Athanasiou – Kempe7:08
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Kempe – Lemieux – Anderson-Dolan4:23
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Grundstrom – Anderson-Dolan6:37
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Maatta – Walker13:42
xG 0.29–0.58 (33%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Roy – Bjornfot15:41
xG 0.23–0.65 (26%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Doughty – Anderson17:26
xG 0.28–1.89 (13%)attempts 13–23goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMegna – Bellemare – Sherwood8:58
xG 0.66–0.01 (98%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Landeskog – Rantanen – Jost8:10
xG 0.75–0.11 (87%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Compher – Nichushkin – Newhook8:08
xG 0.64–0.09 (88%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – Burakovsky10:14
xG 0.57–0.13 (82%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Timmins12:01
xG 1.80–0.15 (93%)attempts 17–5goals 2–0
- Toews – Makar16:14
xG 0.66–0.28 (70%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Graves2:05
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).