Fri, Apr 16, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 015 | 323 | 113 | 451 |
| ANA | 06 | 03 | 07 | 016 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:09VGKWilliam KarlssonGWGAssists: Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P2 4:27VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 19:38VGKNicolas RoyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 8:00VGKBrayden McNabbAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.05 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P2 7:22ANATroy Terry: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:50VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:10ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:25ANAMaxime Comtois: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:38VGKAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:33ANAJohn Gibson: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- P3 16:16ANASam Steel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:52
xG 1.04–0.01 (99%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson9:49
xG 0.82–0.30 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Janmark – Carrier – Tuch9:55
xG 0.58–0.19 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Jurco – Carrier – Roy3:39
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore10:28
xG 1.16–0.16 (88%)attempts 16–2goals 3–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo12:56
xG 0.82–0.20 (81%)attempts 24–11goals 0–0
- Hague – Whitecloud12:14
xG 0.42–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Deslauriers – Jones2:46
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell2:47
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Terry – Jones7:17
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Heinen6:39
xG 0.21–0.40 (34%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Fleury3:16
xG 0.64–0.07 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Welinski3:12
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Fleury11:48
xG 0.19–0.37 (33%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).