Sat, Apr 17, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 6, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 319 | 211 | 641 |
| PHI | 16 | 110 | 19 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:38WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 19:59PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Claude Giroux, Joel Farabee · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 0:33WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 5:28PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 6:15WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 15:02WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: Tom Wilson, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 7:02PHIWade AllisonPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.22 xG4–3
- P3 9:15WSHConor ShearyAssists: Justin Schultz, Lars Eller · Deflected, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 18:48WSHAnthony ManthaENUnassisted · Slap, 0.55 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:42PHIJustin Braun: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:11PHISamuel Morin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:35WSHNick Jensen: Holding2 min
- P2 6:11PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:56WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:09WSHT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
- P3 5:14WSHConor Sheary: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:42PHITravis Konecny: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:36PHIKevin Hayes: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:33
xG 0.76–0.12 (86%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Mantha9:14
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway7:28
xG 0.29–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Eller – Sheary – Sprong6:52
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Jensen12:00
xG 0.80–0.13 (86%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Schultz – Dillon10:46
xG 0.63–0.13 (83%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Schultz – Orlov3:39
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Giroux – Allison – Farabee7:40
xG 0.11–0.17 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Laughton – Aube-Kubel – Twarynski3:21
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Konecny7:36
xG 0.10–0.24 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Aube-Kubel3:19
xG 0.05–0.21 (18%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Provorov2:48
xG 0.07–0.01 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Braun – Provorov11:13
xG 0.33–0.42 (44%)attempts 6–16goals 1–2
- Gostisbehere – Sanheim2:47
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).