Sat, Apr 17, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 3, Winnipeg Jets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 010 | 112 | 23 | 325 |
| WPG | 09 | 04 | 013 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:00EDMTyson BarriePPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Kailer Yamamoto · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 6:37EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.24 xG2–0
- P3 12:57EDMAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Leon Draisaitl · Deflected, 0.18 xG3–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:13EDMTyson Barrie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 0:19WPGMason Appleton: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:56WPGAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:23WPGLogan Stanley: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:33WPGNeal Pionk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:32EDMJujhar Khaira: Holding2 min
- P3 12:17WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:43EDMEthan Bear: Holding2 min
- P3 19:43WPGNate Thompson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestYamamoto – Kahun – Haas7:35
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi14:15
xG 0.87–0.59 (59%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Kassian – Shore – Nygard7:06
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Archibald – Khaira6:33
xG 0.04–0.23 (15%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse13:12
xG 0.84–0.39 (69%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Russell – Larsson15:07
xG 0.79–0.36 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear2:06
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Appleton9:32
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Harkins5:44
xG 0.17–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Copp – Ehlers5:54
xG 0.21–0.14 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Connor4:40
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Poolman – Morrissey13:40
xG 0.51–0.68 (43%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Forbort – Pionk12:30
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Stanley11:17
xG 0.46–0.83 (36%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).