Sun, Apr 18, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 115 | 012 | 00 | 239 |
| VAN | 08 | 15 | 110 | 11 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 14:57TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 16:23VANBo HorvatAssists: Nils Hoglander · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 12:03VANNils HoglanderAssists: Jalen Chatfield, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- OT 1:19VANBo HorvatGWGAssists: Tyler Myers, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:55VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:14VANJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:16VANAlexander Edler: Kneeing5 min · PPG
- P2 10:16VANAlexander Edler: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 5:59TORJustin Holl: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Spezza – Simmonds5:14
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Robertson8:54
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Hyman – Kerfoot – Mikheyev4:40
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Kerfoot – Robertson2:07
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dermott9:40
xG 0.88–0.29 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Muzzin – Brodie15:21
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Brodie – Holl2:08
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Roussel – Hawryluk2:23
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander12:37
xG 0.79–0.65 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Miller – Vesey – Boeser13:44
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Roussel – Graovac – Hawryluk4:35
xG 0.00–0.60 (0%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChatfield – Hughes3:47
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Myers – Hughes2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Myers – Brisebois3:26
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).