Sat, Apr 17, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
San Jose Sharks 2, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 08 | 111 | 228 |
| MIN | 317 | 27 | 04 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:02SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Rudolfs Balcers, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 14:35MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Ryan Hartman · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 15:11MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Jordan Greenway, Marcus Foligno · Deflected, 0.30 xG1–2
- P1 15:47MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Jonas Brodin, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 1:14MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 19:11MINNico SturmAssists: Carson Soucy · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 17:45SJSJoel KellmanAssists: Kevin Labanc, Ryan Donato · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:35SJSMario Ferraro: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:40SJSErik Karlsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:11SJSTomas Hertl: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:11SJSRyan Donato: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 9:33MINCarson Soucy: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:38MINMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestLabanc – Meier – Kellman8:23
xG 0.34–0.06 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Hertl – Balcers10:22
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Sorensen – Donato – Gambrell7:17
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Couture – Kane – Labanc4:56
xG 0.17–0.01 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Simek2:48
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Burns – Karlsson4:50
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Knyzhov2:20
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:50
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Parise – Bonino – Sturm11:00
xG 0.39–0.28 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov11:58
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Fiala7:16
xG 0.11–0.40 (21%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Soucy13:51
xG 0.69–0.45 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Suter – Spurgeon15:38
xG 0.26–0.59 (30%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba16:53
xG 0.15–0.50 (23%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).