Sat, Apr 17, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 19 | 06 | 07 | 122 |
| DAL | 111 | 48 | 013 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:06CBJVladislav GavrikovAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Cam Atkinson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 12:35DALJamie BennAssists: John Klingberg, Denis Gurianov · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 10:10DALDenis GurianovGWGAssists: Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 13:14DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Robertson, Esa Lindell · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 13:34DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 16:40DALEsa LindellAssists: Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:48CBJJack Roslovic: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:15DALJason Dickinson: Holding2 min
- P2 17:47DALRhett Gardner: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:47CBJMax Domi: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:47CBJMax Domi: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:47CBJMax Domi: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:24CBJEric Robinson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Atkinson – Bjorkstrand – Roslovic8:25
xG 0.23–0.27 (47%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Grigorenko – MacInnis – Dunne3:38
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Dalpe – Matteau – Texier6:07
xG 0.07–0.18 (28%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Roslovic – Robinson4:02
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Harrington – Peeke13:45
xG 0.54–0.68 (44%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
- Del Zotto – Gavrikov16:23
xG 0.77–1.35 (36%)attempts 20–18goals 1–3
- Jones – Lehtonen19:17
xG 0.06–1.67 (3%)attempts 4–21goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dickinson – Gurianov9:32
xG 0.90–0.23 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:06
xG 0.79–0.15 (84%)attempts 15–5goals 3–0
- Cogliano – Faksa – Kero3:02
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa8:15
xG 0.21–0.14 (61%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell16:15
xG 1.30–0.31 (81%)attempts 19–11goals 4–1
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen16:00
xG 1.50–0.56 (73%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Sekera – Vatanen16:09
xG 0.86–0.45 (66%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).