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Ice Lab

Mon, Apr 19, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise

Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Florida Panthers 4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.

FLA winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ01419113236
FLA11221918439

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:40FLAFrank VatranoUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:59FLASam BennettAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
  3. P2 13:22CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Cam Atkinson, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P2 14:03FLARadko GudasGWGAssists: Anthony Duclair, Gustav Forsling · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P3 8:01CBJZac DalpeAssists: Eric Robinson, Andrew Peeke · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–3
  6. P3 18:38FLAFrank VatranoENAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 7:36FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 16:38CBJAlexandre Texier: Holding2 min
  3. P2 12:27CBJGavin Bayreuther: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 12:27CBJGavin Bayreuther: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 12:27FLASam Bennett: Instigator2 min
  6. P2 12:27FLASam Bennett: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 12:27FLASam Bennett: Instigator misconduct10 min
  8. P2 14:03CBJJack Roslovic: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  9. P2 15:27FLANikita Gusev: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 12:30CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
  11. P3 18:38FLAPatric Hornqvist: Misconduct10 min
  12. P3 18:38CBJPatrik Laine: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
46% to win54% to win
← CBJ attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Roslovic won the faceoff against Barkov
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJFLA
36Shots on goal39
2.4Expected goals4.4
60Shot attempts57
22Faceoffs won37
2Power plays2
21Penalty minutes31
24Hits25
8Blocked shots15
8Giveaways20
10Takeaways17

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. bestDalpe – Stenlund – Robinson7:58

    xG 0.76–0.43 (64%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1

  2. MacInnis – Sherwood – Dunne6:10

    xG 0.18–0.03 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0

  3. Atkinson – Bjorkstrand – Roslovic12:48

    xG 0.22–0.95 (19%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1

  4. Matteau – Laine – Texier11:27

    xG 0.16–1.16 (12%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestPeeke – Bayreuther13:15

    xG 0.96–0.57 (63%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0

  2. Del Zotto – Jones19:07

    xG 0.38–1.03 (27%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1

  3. Gavrikov – Lehtonen11:46

    xG 0.36–1.10 (25%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestGusev – Barkov – Marchment12:30

    xG 0.98–0.28 (78%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1

  2. Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett8:09

    xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0

  3. Huberdeau – Duclair – Lammikko3:18

    xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0

  4. Hornqvist – Wennberg – Vatrano9:41

    xG 0.53–0.64 (46%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestStralman – Forsling14:35

    xG 1.23–0.32 (80%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0

  2. Yandle – Gudas10:39

    xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0

  3. Montour – Nutivaara15:57

    xG 0.74–0.55 (57%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 4.4 xGCBJ 2.4 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLACBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 43/100 · #472 of 868 this seasonSwing 1.09 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.

FLA winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).