Mon, Apr 19, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Montréal Canadiens 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 18 | 08 | 123 |
| EDM | 07 | 010 | 419 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:46MTLEric StaalAssists: Corey Perry · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 10:49EDMEthan BearAssists: Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 15:11EDMConnor McDavidGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 17:37EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 18:21EDMDevin ShoreENAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:15EDMDarnell Nurse: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:58MTLPhillip Danault: Interference2 min
- P2 9:09MTLTomas Tatar: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:43EDMLeon Draisaitl: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:33MTLPaul Byron: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00MTLTyler Toffoli: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Danault – Anderson8:59
xG 0.70–0.56 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- Staal – Perry – Lehkonen6:36
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Armia – Suzuki9:00
xG 0.23–0.54 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Byron – Drouin – Kotkaniemi7:08
xG 0.07–0.91 (7%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot14:48
xG 0.68–0.53 (56%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Edmundson2:48
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Kulak – Romanov13:06
xG 0.48–0.62 (44%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestArchibald – McDavid – Puljujarvi5:33
xG 1.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–2goals 3–0
- Kassian – Shore – Nygard2:26
xG 0.18–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Yamamoto – Kahun – Haas2:31
xG 0.00–0.02 (20%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kassian – Shore – Haas2:08
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear9:15
xG 1.44–0.15 (91%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- Bear – Jones6:07
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Larsson – Jones3:37
xG 0.21–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).