Tue, Apr 20, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Vancouver Canucks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 113 | 119 | 18 | 340 |
| VAN | 012 | 28 | 49 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:55TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P2 5:33VANBrandon SutterAssists: Brock Boeser, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 10:08VANQuinn HughesAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 17:14TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 3:10TORAdam BrooksSHAssists: Mitch Marner, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 6:43VANNils HoglanderAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 9:48VANTanner PearsonPPGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Slap, 0.58 xG3–4
- P3 13:36VANTanner PearsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 19:24VANBrandon SutterENAssists: Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P2 15:43VANJalen Chatfield: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:12TORPierre Engvall: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:52TORTJ Brodie: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:35VANTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestGalchenyuk – Marner – Matthews13:19
xG 1.03–0.35 (75%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander12:05
xG 1.09–0.87 (56%)attempts 19–13goals 1–2
- Thornton – Simmonds – Engvall9:04
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Spezza – Brooks – Robertson6:29
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Brodie15:40
xG 0.93–0.46 (67%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Sandin8:12
xG 0.63–0.24 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Rielly – Sandin3:36
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Virtanen – Highmore4:03
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Sutter – Roussel – Hawryluk3:05
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Sutter – Vesey – Hawryluk2:34
xG 0.01–0.03 (25%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Boyd – Virtanen – Highmore4:21
xG 0.23–0.26 (46%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chatfield – Juolevi12:32
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hughes16:16
xG 0.74–0.82 (48%)attempts 16–16goals 3–0
- Myers – Schmidt14:45
xG 0.75–1.24 (38%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).