Mon, Apr 19, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 2, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 24 | 08 | 03 | 1 | 222 |
| DAL | 18 | 112 | 012 | 04 | 2 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:50DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 7:45DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Evgeny Svechnikov, Alex Biega · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 11:06DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.38 xG1–2
- P2 16:55DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Alex Biega, Darren Helm · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 2. DET Dylan Larkin scored
- 3. DAL Joe Pavelski stopped
- 4. DET Sam Gagner stopped
- 5. DAL Roope Hintz stopped
- 6. DET Adam Erne stopped
- 7. DAL Miro Heiskanen stopped
- 8. DET Evgeny Svechnikov stopped
- 9. DAL Denis Gurianov scored
- 10. DET Filip Hronek stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:07DETDarren Helm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 5:25DETEvgeny Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:47DALJason Robertson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Gagner – Panik – Namestnikov10:30
xG 0.32–0.32 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Larkin – Svechnikov – Zadina10:24
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Filppula – Erne – Rasmussen2:42
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Larkin – Rasmussen2:40
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Biega2:20
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 2–0
- Biega – DeKeyser3:43
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Biega – Hronek4:04
xG 0.04–0.18 (17%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson13:06
xG 1.16–0.26 (82%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Benn – Dickinson – Gurianov13:22
xG 0.56–0.28 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa11:51
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Dowling – Kero – Gardner7:37
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen15:25
xG 1.32–0.20 (87%)attempts 27–9goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen2:04
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Oleksiak2:36
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).