Sun, Apr 11, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 8, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 39 | 314 | 210 | 833 |
| BOS | 07 | 016 | 112 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:33WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:49WSHLars EllerGWGAssists: Carl Hagelin, Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 9:42WSHConor ShearyAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Daniel Sprong · Snap, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 4:41WSHConor ShearyPPAssists: Tom Wilson, Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–0
- P2 16:03WSHNic DowdAssists: Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–0
- P2 18:24WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Justin Schultz · Tip-in, 0.12 xG6–0
- P3 3:00BOSCraig SmithPPAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.29 xG6–1
- P3 10:13WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.23 xG7–1
- P3 13:14WSHLars EllerAssists: T.J. Oshie, Brenden Dillon · Tip-in, 0.15 xG8–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:04BOSChris Wagner: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:04WSHBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:27WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:49BOSSean Kuraly: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:34WSHDaniel Sprong: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:57BOSCraig Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:34WSHJustin Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:26BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:33BOSJeremy Lauzon: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:01WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:49BOSCharlie Coyle: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:32BOSSteven Kampfer: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Sheary – Sprong9:19
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Oshie – Eller – Vrana7:24
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:25
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway6:23
xG 0.06–0.37 (13%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Jensen11:37
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Schultz – Orlov2:31
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dillon11:13
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:42
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Smith – Coyle – DeBrusk8:26
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Krejci – Ritchie – Kuhlman9:14
xG 0.47–0.48 (50%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
- Wagner – Kuraly – Blidh7:20
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Ahcan6:17
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Tinordi – Clifton2:48
xG 0.04–0.03 (58%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Zboril6:03
xG 0.25–0.28 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).