Tue, Apr 27, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 4, New Jersey Devils 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 03 | 115 | 312 | 430 |
| NJD | 19 | 29 | 39 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:45NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.31 xG0–1
- P2 2:20NJDPavel ZachaPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Ty Smith · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 5:14NJDMiles WoodUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 5:29PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Jackson Cates, Nolan Patrick · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–3
- P3 2:24PHIPhilippe MyersUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 3:34PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek, Robert Hagg · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–3
- P3 8:04NJDConnor CarrickAssists: Ty Smith, Michael McLeod · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 12:25PHITravis SanheimAssists: Sean Couturier · Deflected, 0.02 xG4–4
- P3 12:36NJDYegor SharangovichGWGAssists: Janne Kuokkanen · Snap, 0.16 xG4–5
- P3 19:58NJDMikhail MaltsevENAssists: Michael McLeod, Connor Carrick · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:11NJDMichael McLeod: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 17:45PHINolan Patrick: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:37PHITravis Sanheim: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:37PHITravis Sanheim: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:37NJDMichael McLeod: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier14:17
xG 1.18–0.26 (82%)attempts 21–6goals 2–0
- Lindblom – Patrick – Cates9:31
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Allison11:06
xG 0.62–0.36 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee10:34
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Myers2:48
xG 0.52–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 1–1
- Hagg – Myers10:35
xG 0.62–0.46 (57%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Braun – Provorov12:28
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Zacha – Bratt – Hischier11:02
xG 0.45–0.65 (41%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Kuokkanen – Sharangovich – Hughes10:32
xG 0.35–0.56 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod9:37
xG 0.16–0.39 (29%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Maltsev – Boqvist – Foote5:45
xG 0.10–1.05 (9%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Severson18:51
xG 0.77–0.66 (54%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Tennyson – Butcher2:19
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Carrick – Butcher17:55
xG 0.42–0.80 (35%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).