Tue, Apr 20, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New York Rangers 1, New York Islanders 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 19 | 09 | 126 |
| NYI | 111 | 29 | 38 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:42NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 1:38NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Nick Leddy, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 5:45NYIAnthony BeauvillierPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 11:04NYRKevin RooneyAssists: Brendan Smith, Vitali Kravtsov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 7:44NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 10:16NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–5
- P3 11:22NYIJordan EberleAssists: Travis Zajac · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:43NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:53NYRRyan Lindgren: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:44NYRAdam Fox: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:03NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:55NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRooney – Howden – Kravtsov8:33
xG 0.95–0.80 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière9:14
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Strome – Panarin9:18
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Panarin3:05
xG 0.16–0.31 (35%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBitetto – Fox2:32
xG 0.83–0.20 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Bitetto – Lindgren2:29
xG 0.10–0.06 (64%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fox – Miller4:48
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Pageau – Beauvillier10:04
xG 0.49–0.09 (84%)attempts 7–8goals 3–0
- Zajac – Eberle – Barzal9:14
xG 0.71–0.31 (69%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Komarov – Martin – Cizikas9:52
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Dal Colle10:18
xG 0.86–0.88 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock11:08
xG 0.91–0.18 (83%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Greene – Mayfield2:37
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Leddy – Mayfield7:45
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).