Wed, Apr 21, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Montréal Canadiens 4, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 113 | 19 | 29 | 431 |
| EDM | 04 | 19 | 212 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:31MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 3:09EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Caleb Jones · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 3:20MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Tomas Tatar, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 8:10MTLTyler ToffoliPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.46 xG3–1
- P3 15:03MTLJosh AndersonGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar, Alexander Romanov · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 17:48EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 18:49EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:55MTLCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:55EDMAlex Chiasson: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:23MTLJoel Armia: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:39EDMMike Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:57EDMConnor McDavid: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:45MTLJake Allen: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:35EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:03EDMDominik Kahun: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 15:10MTLJonathan Drouin: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Danault – Anderson7:56
xG 1.15–0.39 (75%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi9:00
xG 0.24–0.04 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Staal – Perry – Drouin6:21
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Armia – Suzuki10:58
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Romanov10:38
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Petry – Edmundson12:52
xG 0.63–0.26 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Weber – Chiarot17:05
xG 0.55–0.39 (59%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestArchibald – McDavid – Puljujarvi8:42
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Neal – Chiasson – Haas4:00
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto13:49
xG 0.19–1.11 (14%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Jones10:59
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Russell – Barrie12:19
xG 0.27–0.88 (24%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Nurse – Bear18:34
xG 0.38–1.02 (27%)attempts 7–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).