Tue, Apr 20, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 012 | 17 | 17 | 226 |
| DAL | 310 | 17 | 17 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:55DALTanner KeroAssists: Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 5:07DALJason RobertsonAssists: Jason Dickinson, Joel Hanley · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 14:17DALJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Jason Robertson, Jason Dickinson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 3:36DALJamie OleksiakAssists: Denis Gurianov · Snap, 0.22 xG0–4
- P2 4:51DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 16:13DETDylan LarkinAssists: Filip Hronek, Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 19:07DALBlake ComeauENAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Backhand, 0.72 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:36DETVladislav Namestnikov: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:36DALSami Vatanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:13DALRhett Gardner: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00DETDylan Larkin: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00DALEsa Lindell: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:48DETVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:21DALJake Oettinger: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:55DETDylan Larkin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Vrana – Rasmussen8:33
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Helm – Glendening – Erne8:43
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Vrana – Larkin – Zadina3:05
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Gagner – Panik – Namestnikov5:13
xG 0.13–0.64 (17%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Stecher3:21
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Biega3:10
xG 0.21–0.10 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Cholowski – Hronek10:51
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Dickinson – Robertson8:57
xG 0.70–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 2–0
- Benn – Gurianov – Kero11:49
xG 0.55–0.23 (71%)attempts 8–16goals 2–0
- Dowling – Gardner – Dellandrea5:50
xG 0.04–0.27 (12%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa10:56
xG 0.23–0.62 (27%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Oleksiak15:21
xG 0.68–0.40 (63%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
- Sekera – Hanley11:52
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Klingberg – Lindell14:32
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).